'The recovery process for the Indian economy would be gradual'.
The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 461 points to end at 25,603.
Prof B B Bhattacharya says his forecasts are more 'judgemental' today, along the lines of the forecasts of other institutions including the RBI. Excerpts from a conversation with Sunil Jain.
Adverse economic conditions in Europe, demand-supply imbalance led to impairment.
The encouraging news, however, is that India features among the top four countries out of 44 nations that projected a positive hiring trend.
'Pump prices of petrol and diesel have reached historical highs. An unwinding of taxes on petroleum products by both the Centre and the states could ease the cost-push pressures,' the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said.
India's economy could prove to be the "most resilient" in the subregion of South and South-West Asia over the long term, according to a report by the UN, which says a positive but lower economic growth post COVID-19 pandemic and the country's large market will continue to attract investments. The report titled 'Foreign Direct Investment Trends And Outlook In Asia And The Pacific 2020/2021', and compiled by United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), stated that inward FDI flows to South and South-West Asia slightly decreased by 2 per cent in 2019, from $67 billion in 2018 to $66 billion in 2019. The growth, however, was mainly driven by India, which accounted for 77 per cent of the total inflows to the subregion and received $51 billion in 2019, up 20 per cent from the previous year.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
The G20 meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors beginning July 19 will also be attended by Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao and Deputy Governor Urjit Patel.
'The competition between the two is definitely going to be of great interest to the Indian market.'
Shocks from Brexit could also hurt one of China's biggest export markets.
Indian banks are the 2nd-fastest-growing ones.
'If deaths had been properly reported, it would have helped contain the pandemic.'
In January, the UN had forecast that the world economy would shrink 0.5 per cent this year. The report predicted that with a coordinated, development-oriented policy scenario, the world economy would recover to an annual growth of 4-5 per cent in 2010-2015, led by a robust growth of 7 per cent a year in developing nations.
Clearly, the extra borrowing of Rs 4.2 trillion the government has planned so far will not be enough to meet the shortfall in revenues which could be between Rs 8 trillion and Rs 10 trillion, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Govt to play enabler not handler, India never had more decisive government: PM Modi Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday cited his dispensation's push for wide-ranging reforms, including the privatisation of Air India, to assert that the country never had a more "decisive government". Launching the Indian Space Association (ISpA), an industry body aspiring to be the voice of the country's space sector, Modi noted that fields like mining, coal, defence and space have been opened to private players, and said his government's clear policy about public sector enterprises is to open those to private industry where its presence is not required. While opening a host of sectors, the government has built a regulatory environment in which priority has been given to national interest as well as the interests of different stakeholders, he said.
Instead of getting swayed by market gyrations, investors must stay invested for the long term, advises Sarbajeet K Sen.
The revision of the consumer price index and GDP base years from 2011-12 and 2012, respectively, were dependent on the outcomes of the consumer expenditure survey of 2017-18 that the government decided to junk recently.
The finance minister (FM) in his speech confirmed growth forecasts in the Economic Survey that the economy is likely to grow at 8.6 per cent during the current fiscal.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
"Indian markets (are) well placed to absorb the US Fed rate hike. Gradual approach in future increases augurs well for emerging markets," Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das has tweeted.
'We will need more than 21 days of lockdown for sure.'
If you look at the broad numbers, industrial growth in the first five months of this year was 5 per cent, compared to 10 per cent a year earlier. As for next year, the International Monetary Fund has in the space of a month lowered its forecast from 6.9 per cent to 6.3 per cent -- a range where perhaps only one Indian forecaster has dared to tread so far.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent
Ahead of the Economic Survey, industry body Ficci today lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal, pegging India's economic expansion rate at 5.3 per cent compared to its 5.5 per cent previous estimate.
The positive effects of demonetisation will be visible from April and the completion of remonetisation process will drive consumption going forward, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday.
Fed policymakers' deepening uncertainty about their own projections has resulted in the central bank sending mixed messages
India suffered a $3 billion loss to its economy from severe rainfall and flooding in November and early December.
Beside manufacturing, deceleration was also witnessed in sectors like agriculture, construction and electricity, gas and water supply.
Negotiations on the looming "fiscal cliff" will dominate talk in Washington this month, with both the White House and congressional Republicans having made early offers.
India retains the tag of the fastest growing country among the world's major emerging economies
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday reviewed the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian economy and a possible second stimulus to boost sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Modi held discussions with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as the pandemic hit sectors from small industries to the aviation sector hard with millions of jobs at stake.
While asserting that the growth of coronavirus cases in the country has been more or less linear and not exponential, it also said testing has been ramped up consistently.
Sensex sinks into red at close on growth concerns.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Budget a little more than a month from now. Like any other FM, Sitharaman will depend on her team of bureaucrats and advisors to frame and present the Budget.
Hopes of revival and earnings growth in 2020, surprise tax cuts, and robust foreign flows - thanks to easy global monetary policies - are a few reasons why the markets have managed to digest the low GDP footprint. Select bluechips such as Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, and ICICI Bank have gained sharply this year. On the other hand, YES Bank, Zee Entertainment, and Indiabulls Housing have seen a sharp fall.
As per OECD's September estimates, global growth was to be 3 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2016.
Growth in India is expected to remain strong and stable in 2015
While India's GDP is pegged at 7.7%, China is projected to grow at 7%.
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